How likely is Game of Thrones to win at the Emmys? We’ve got odds

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Last month, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences announced this year’s Emmy nominations, and Game of Thrones was prominently featured. It was nominated for 23 awards*, more than any other show this year. Will Season 6 sweep the ceremony like Season 5 did last year?

The short answer: probably. Emmy voters have a history of going with what they know, and now that Game of Thrones has installed itself as an Emmy darling, we could see it picking up awards left and right until it ends in a couple of years. But if you want some specific odds, GoldDerby is here for you. The site specializes in predicting award outcomes in the entertainment industry. It takes catalogs from experts (journalists from Entertainment Weekly, USA Today, etc.), the site’s own editors, users known to have accurately predicted award outcomes in previous years, and all site users. Then it synthesizes those numbers and gives odds on whose most likely to win. For example, according to the GoldDerby system, how likely is Max Von Sydow (the Three-Eyed Raven) to win a statue for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series?

Quite.

Let’s looks at some of GoldDerby’s other odds. For example, how’s it looking for Kit Harington and Peter Dinklage in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama field?

The experts seem to agree that Kit Harington has this category sewn up, mostly for his very physical performance in “Battle of the Bastards.” Dinklage has already won an award in this category twice, but this year his chances seem a bit lower.

Next: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama, in which Game of Thrones has three nominations.

It’s nuts that fully half the people in this category are from Game of Thrones. As GoldDerby points out elsewhere, last year’s winner, Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black) was snubbed this year, so it may be Lena Headey’s (Cersei Lannister) time to take it. Maggie Smith is a formidable obstacle, though—she’s being nominated for her final season on Downton Abbey, and we can see the Academy voters honoring her for her body of work on that show.

Plus, if the Academy was going to give Headey an award, shouldn’t it have been last year after her Walk of Shame scene? Also, it’s too bad that Maisie Williams doesn’t have better odds, but it’s her first time being nominated, and she has years yet to climb the rankings.

Moving on the non-acting categories, here are GoldDerby’s odds for the Outstanding Directing in a Drama category:

If “Battle of the Bastards” doesn’t win in this category, I will eat my hat. I don’t own a hat, but I will buy one for the occasion.

How about Outstanding Writing in a Drama?

In this case, the odds favor the pilot episode of USA’s hacker drama Mr. Robot. We’ll see—Mr. Robot is the hot new show on the block, but Game of Thrones has more buzz overall.

And finally, here’re the odds for Best Drama, laid out in both chart form…

…and graph form. Everybody loves a graph.

So yes, odds are that Game of Thrones will win big at the Emmys, but anything can happen between now and September 18.

*That’s 24 awards if you count the nomination for Outstanding Interactive Program, and 25 if you count Gay of Thrones’ nod for Outstanding Short-Form Variety Series.

• Published on 08/09/2016 at 1:20 PM CDT
• Last updated on 10/24/2016 at 6:37 PM CDT