Will Game of Thrones win Outstanding Drama Series at the 2018 Emmys?

Game of Thrones has won the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series twice, for its fifth season in 2015 and its sixth in 2016. It sat out the 2017 Emmys, since season 7 debuted too late to be eligible. But we’re now coming up on the 2018 Emmys, and Game of Thrones is back with a vengeance. In fact, it’s picked up 22 nominations, more than any other show, including another nod for Outstanding Drama Series. But will it win for a third time in a row…kind of?

GoldDerby, a site dedicated entirely to determining who will win what at awards shows, doubt it. The way they figure it, only one other show has ever won an Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series for its seventh season: L.A. Law, which clinched the top award of the night in 1997. Game of Thrones, on the other hand, is following the path of The Sopranos, another groundbreaking HBO show. Like Thrones, The Sopranos won its first Outstanding Drama Series award for its fifth season, in 2004. Then, like Game of Thrones, it sat out a ceremony because the first half of its sixth and final season premiered too late to be eligible. (Lost, just happy to be there, won that year.) Then, in 2006, the penultimate season of The Sopranos lost out to 24. The way GoldDerby figures it, Game of Thrones season 7 is doomed to suffer the same fate as the first half of The Sopranos season 6.

However, this story has a happy ending. After sitting out one ceremony and losing another, the final season of The Sopranos picked up the Outstanding Drama Series trophy in 2007. GoldDerby figures Game of Thrones will follow suit, losing the award for season 7 but bringing it home for season 8. Sixty-one percent of GoldDerby’s readership agrees.

This makes sense to me. Game of Thrones season 7 served as a lead-up to season 8; it’s hard to definitively judge those seven episodes without the follow-through. Also, The Handmaid’s Tale, which won last year while Thrones was on its smoke break, is still a critical darling, nominated for nearly as many awards as Thrones. GoldDerby pegs Hulu’s hit as the probable Outstanding Drama Series award winner this year, based on the odds. Thrones is also up against The Americans, The Crown, Stranger Things, This Is Us and Westworld, but The Handmaid’s Tale is its biggest competition.

But after Game of Thrones season 8 airs, everyone and anyone is going to rush to reward the show for its contributions to television. I don’t pity anyone who has to compete against Thrones that year.

Outstanding Drama Series isn’t the only award on the docket this year. Thrones is up for awards in editing, directing, costuming and much more, and will surely win many of those awards even if it cedes top honors to The Handmaid’s Tale. Also, Lena Headey, Peter Dinklage and Nikolaj Coster-Waldau are all up for acting awards, and I’m hoping at least one of them takes home the gold.

The 70 annual Emmy Awards, hosted by Colon Jost and Michael Che of Saturday Night Live, will air on September 17 on NBC.

Next: Let’s look at empty Game of Thrones filming locations and feel sad

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